Dutching for Profit (part 2)

Dutching for profit part 1 explained how the book price is an important consideration when we identify markets to Dutch. In this Dutching article we will see how we can quickly narrow down a race to the most likely contenders.

There are many ways of selecting the runners we wish to use for Dutching but the fact to keep in sight is we are looking to create the strongest winning chance we can have in the event by having the most likely winners running for our Dutching 'book'.

When we use Bet-IE we have 2 main ways of quickly selecting runners and races to use and both are equally profitable but for a beginner to Dutching we will start at the 'orange boxes' of Bet-IE. These selections are based on a formula that Nessie and myself have used for many years now and the formula continues to trap winner after winner, year in year out.

So when we look to create a Dutch we firstly load an event into Bet-IE

Now the race above is not inviting as a betting proposition yet. Why not I hear you ask? Well firstly remember what we are trying to achieve when we Dutch we are trying to achieve the STRONGEST winning chance we can find. I don't want to 'gamble' I want to invest. So with that in mind looking at a race where 9 of the 15 runners are 'orange boxes' does that sound like a clear cut race, or a very open race? Well in my eyes this race is competitive and so from a Dutching point of view I would bypass it, although it would be an excellent Hedging opportunity.

Also look at the spread percentage figure, now for our 'orange boxes' to be classed as a strong position the spread between the orange boxes and the next in the betting should be the minimum of 80%+ in this case its only 43.75%, again not a strong factor.

Now lets look at another race where the market gives us a definite signal. First lets look at the important data Bet-IE shows us.

Now in the above screen shot the first thing to see is the 'book price' for the selected runners this is indicated as the 'Back book' in our case for this race its showing as 81.17% so we are below 100% this means a profit is available on the selected runners.

Notice the spread of the market is 87.5% this is again above our 80% threshold, next to the spread indication you will see a Dutching Strength indicator now this is showing us as a 51% good indication to Dutch. This indicator only shows when all the criteria falls into place from our dutching formula, so unless a strength figure is indicated something is not quite right with the dutch. The strength is indicated in various % increments and runs from 'poor;' 'fair'; 'good'; 'very good' and 'excellent'.Any strength indication is good enough to warrant a closer examination.

The next important data is the profit available and we will address this in a moment. Finally the Lay Book figure is also important, why I hear you ask? Well simply using the Reverse Odds feature we can improve the profit of our Dutch by requesting the Lay odds, in this example we would increase our profit by 1.72% not a vast amount but every percentage of profit helps!

As we can see above the runners are clearly indicated by the software leaving us to just click on the name boxes to select the runner and the data changes in line with the runners selected.

We see in the above screen shot the columns and what they represent, the green column is the 'aim' column so that displays the Profit target or the liability on the bet. The yellow column is your staking required to make the Dutch.

We do of course have a variety of ways to target our Dutching profits but in this simple example we will look to adjust our individual profit targets around the prices available. So in the two screen shots below we have the Dutch setup for a variable profit target.

Now because of our variable staking the outlay for the total dutch has reduced to £176.73 also notice the profit now has two variables a minimum profit of 11% and a maximum profit of 28% this is in line with my reading of the market. If you look at the shape of the betting the favourite has a clear gap to the 2nd favourite and then a small gap to the 3rd favourite. My profit target reflects a similar approach my target for the favourite is £50 then £30 and finally £20.

As you can see the bet worked perfectly and there was not a moments doubt we would be making a profit.

In the next article we will examine Dutching with a variable target and we will introduce you to using the Ratios.

Until next time, stay lucky.

Dave and Nessie.